EagleTrader Trader Interview | Use probability thinking and execution to fight the uncertainty of trading

In this unpredictable market, how to identify opportunities, stick to strategies, and get out of your own pace from time to time and time, is a compulsory course for every trader.

Pan Delong, an outstanding trader in EagleTrader, used his 4-5 years of foreign exchange trading experience to show us a portrait of a calm, rational but humane trader.

Looking for a path to change income with experience

Compared with many traders entering the market due to their interests or dreams, Pan Delong’s traders’ choices are more direct and realistic. He said: “This is the only thing that can quickly change income by using experience or probability.” He believes that trading is an industry that can closely bind time costs and results, and therefore requires more continuous and in-depth polishing and accumulation.

At present, Pan Delong trader has passed two rounds of EagleTrader assessments, and plans to operate profit-sharing accounts in a part-time state, and gradually expand the influence and revenue share of transactions without sacrificing the original rhythm.

Using probability deduction and execution game

In trading strategies, traders Pan Delong have their own clear cognitive structure. He divided decision-making basis into intuition and experience (50%), technical analysis (40%) and fundamental analysis (10%). Although the strategy has not undergone major revisions, the deviation in execution has always been the core issue he is concerned about.

“Execution is a problem that traders have to face for a long time.” To this end, he reviews the strategy every day, records the profit and loss, and deduces “who has a higher probability tomorrow”, driving trading plans from the perspective of a probability statistician.

He admitted that he could not completely rule out the luck factor. “If you cannot execute the strategy 100%, you cannot eliminate luck. But humans are not robots, you can only use external forces to reduce impulse trading.” In his eyes, traders cannot fantasize about absolute control of the market, they can only limit irrational behavior through discipline, and control the impact of luck within a range that the system can bear.

Keep the bottom line and respect the limits

Pan Delong traders do not shy away from talking about losses and liquidation experiences. He believes that there are two situations of liquidation. One is the emotional heavy position caused by “upper”, and the other is the wrong opening logic with no preset limits in the system.

The former is hopeless and regretful, while the latter is calmly incorporated into the historical sample and optimized the strategic model. “If the position is broken down this time due to strategic issues, then I will treat it as an extreme marketRecord it and the next time you encounter a similar situation, you will narrow your position. ”

His risk control rules are very clear – if the loss on that day exceeds 5%, it is the bottom line. “When you are at that kind of top, there is only one way: keep the bottom line. ”

Compared with most traders helpless after the drawdown, Pan Delong traders gave another idea through pullback recovery data – after encountering the maximum drawdown, he only needs 3-5 days to return to the high point of net value on average.

Volatility is the bait of the market and a test of mentality

When asked what kind of market environment he prefers, Pan Delong traders did not hesitate to say that he prefers a stable market. He was once keen to heavily operate the US trading period with severe fluctuations, but “if it is unilateral, it is okay, but the volatility will sweep up and down, which is the most deadly thing. “He has a deep understanding of volatility: “Volatility arouses your desires and breaks your peaceful heart. ”

Faced with fluctuations, he now chooses to participate in a small position to calmly deal with emotions. “Let the fluctuations no longer cause ripples in your heart. “This is his expectation for his emotional control ability.

When he expected to make a big profit but encountered a pullback, he also remained awake. “That was made by gambling and not long. It can easily cause a roller coaster-like mood and is unhealthy. “He tried hard to avoid falling into the cycle of “win first and vomiting” and maintained psychological stability with practical actions.

Leave flexibility in stability

Pan Delong traders always formulate trading plans and can achieve strict execution of 70%-80%. For the remaining 20%-30%, he will recalculate the probability based on the fluctuations in the market that day and decide whether to adjust the plan. In his opinion, the plan and response are not contradictory. The key lies in the long-term review: “I will calculate whether it is to strictly implement the plan or to make a more profit from flexible adjustments. ”

In terms of risk control, he quantifies the total risk to 100 points, and only uses about 30 points per transaction. This preset mechanism not only controls the upper limit of losses, but also reserves space for the continuous optimization of the strategy.

Cherish opportunities and encourages people to move forward steadily

This time he took the EagleTrader exam, he believed that the biggest gain was “cherish” – cherish this opportunity seen and recognized by the platform, cherish the process of systematic verification of one or two years.

For the later new traders, he also left a simple suggestion: “Please review the market with the strategy you think you can make money, and make a profit in one or two years, and then increase the position operation. “

Pan Delong trader is not a “legendary trader”. He will also lose his position, be impulsive, and deviate from the plan. But his maturity is that he is always approaching the state of systematic and disciplined traders. This is also the portrait of EagleTrader looking for and supporting traders – not a gambler who gets rich overnight, but can generalizeA practical fighter who establishes self-order in the rules.

He uses actions to tell us: long-term stable trading does not depend on miracles or luck, but only on sober cognition and steady execution.