Fed rate cuts are imminent, global central bank policy week is stirring

The Mid-Autumn Festival has just passed, and this week’s data will also usher in major news – late at night on September 19, the Federal Reserve meeting is about to hit! Although the decision to cut interest rates has been “decided”, how much is it? It is still the most popular issue in the market. In addition, central banks in Japan, the United Kingdom and other countries will also announce the latest interest rate resolutions this week.

The Fed’s expectation of interest rate cuts strengthened, with 50 basis points becoming a popular option

The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut at this meeting, and speculation about the extent of the rate cut is becoming increasingly fierce. Traders have stepped up their bets on a 50 basis point cut, and the predicted probability of the option has soared to 59%, a significant increase from last Friday, according to CME’s Fed observation tool.

Forex strategist at the Federal Bank of Australia Kristina Clifton pointed out that the dollar may be under pressure this week as global easing trends weaken its risk-averse charm. However, if the Fed fails to show a “dove” stance as expected by the market, the US dollar may rebound after the meeting.

Bank of Japan remains unchanged this month, and interest rates may be raised at the end of the year

This Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate policy. The market generally expects that the Bank of Japan will keep its current interest rates unchanged and may push the next rate hike to December. Although some central bank directors have mentioned that monetary easing adjustments are linked to economic conditions, most observers believe that the Bank of Japan is more inclined to stabilize policies under the current economic situation and wait for the time beingThe machine is mature.

The UK economy recovers, and the pace of interest rate cuts may slow down

The Bank of England will hold an interest rate meeting on Thursday at 19:00. The market expects the bank to maintain its current interest rate level and gradually cut interest rates in the coming months. Although it has cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years in August, the Bank of England has stressed that it will remain patient, depending on the economic situation and inflationary pressures.

The market generally predicts that by early 2026, the Bank of England will cut 25 basis points each in seven times, bringing interest rates to 3.25%. George Buckley, chief European economist at Nomura Securities, believes that the Bank of England will adopt a more cautious interest rate cut strategy, and the next rate cut is expected to take place in November.

This week, many central banks will issue the latest interest rate decisions, and the market may fluctuate a lot, so traders need to be cautious during the release of these data to avoid being affected by macro factors and causing losses.